Ménage à trois.

Carolyn Parrish. The Honourable David Kilgour. Chuck Cadman.

Each of these three people are independent Members of Parliament. (Also known as very important folks these days.)

The formula is fairly simple: (132+19)+(99+54)+(1+1+1)+(1)=308. The Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party, the Conservative Party, the Bloc Quebecois, three independents, and one vacant seat. If the Liberals and the NDP formed a coalition, and if the Block Quebecois joined with the Conservatives on votes of confidence, then the total would be 151 (for the Liberals) to 153 against. The balance of power would then rest with those three independents.

Consider Carolyn Parrish. She was elected as a Liberal MP just last year. However, her vocal (and frequent) criticisms of George W. Bush resulted in Prime Minister Paul Martin asking for her to be expelled from the Liberal caucus.

The Honourable David Kilgour was, too, a Liberal MP just weeks ago. He abruptly left the Liberal caucus, though, after he said he had lost confidence in the party’s leadership as a result of the sponsorship scandal. He has also indicated his concern with the Liberal Party’s support of equal marriage legislation.

And, finally, we have Chuck Cadman, who once sat as a Canadian Alliance MP. Before the election last year, though, the newly recombined Conservative Party failed to nominate (or even support) Cadman, who was recovering from cancer. Cadman won, though, handily, in his riding, and now sits as, yes, an independent.

Parrish could well vote to support the Government in a vote of confidence. Kilgour could, perhaps, as well, though that is less certain.

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Parrish and Kilgour do side with the Liberal-NDP coalition. That would leave Cadman, essentially, as the tie-breaker. Would he abstain for a deadlock? Support those who abandoned him? Or throw his support at keeping Parliament going? And, potentially, could any of the folks from the Bloc come to the aid of the Grits? (Unlikely, as Dumont would most likely force his MPs into carrying the party line, a raw political move, but a smart strategic one, perhaps, as his party has seen strong gains in Québec as a result of the sponsorship scandal.

The only thing for sure is that Mr. Martin is in one tough situation. I’ll be holding my breath…