justen

In 2006, Sarah Palin made history when she became the first woman, and the youngest person to ever be elected governor of Alaska. Upon taking office, she set out to clean up state government, put smart economic development programs into place, and refocus energy on improving education and infrastructure. Her ability to connect with voters helped her rebuild trust in the Republican brand across the state, which had been severely damaged after allegations of corruption and profiteering rocked the Republican establishment in Alaska.

Her common sense approach to governing, and her practical social and economic positions have broad appeal to voters across the political spectrum. She has proven she can connect to younger and independent voters. And she doesn’t have to just talk about change, she has a track record of making it happen.

All of this to say, if John McCain’s campaign is smart enough to ask Sarah Palin to be his vice president, I think there’s a strong possibility he’d have my vote.

Which is something I never thought I’d say. Am I suddenly a swing voter? Wow.

I contributed $1,900 to Hillary Clinton over the course of the primaries, starting back on January 9. By the time it is all said and done, I will probably have given her the maximum allowable for a primary campaign, $2,300. Over these past few months, I came to believe that Hillary was the one Democrat in this race who could win a general election. I believed then, and still believe now, that she is the Democrat best qualified, capable, and ready to lead America.

If you had told me, six months ago, that I would be sitting here, right now, entertaining, for the first time in my life, the possibility of voting for a Republican for President, I would probably have laughed at you. Likewise, though, if you had told me, six months ago, that the Democratic nominee for President would have “won” the nomination without winning the popular vote in California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, or West Virginia… Let me just simplify that… If you had told me, six months ago, that the Democratic nominee for President would have “won” the nomination without winning the popular vote, period, then I would have thought you were joking.

Yet, here we are. We have a nominee who not only failed to secure the working class vote, but who went a step further and managed to alienate those folks on more than one occasion. We have a nominee who hobbled across the primary finish line on June 3, having lost nine of the last fourteen primaries. He lost nine of the last fourteen primaries. After the media had already effectively declared him the Democratic nominee time and time again.

Hello?

Barack Obama has built an influential and powerful coalition, but he’s missing critical constituencies a Democrat has to have to win a general election. He has overwhelming support among African Americans, but has failed to make hardly any progress in securing the Latino vote. He has found great financial support from well-educated, liberal whites, but his support among the working class is terrifying. (Hello, McGovern?) His loss margins in Kentucky and West Virginia were most alarming for me; in my lifetime, I’ve seen, time and time again, that a Democratic candidate who can’t connect with West Virginians can’t win the White House. Barack barely even bothered trying to connect.

His campaign argues that losing states like Ohio, Florida, and West Virginia can be made up by winning states like Virginia and Colorado. But I just don’t see a shift in those states large enough to make that happen. Especially if the ghosts in Barack’s closet continue to haunt him: Jeremiah Wright just won’t go away, and Tony Rezko stands to be ample fodder for Swift Boat Veterans for Truth 2008.

The possibility of an African American as president is just as exciting to me as was the possibility of a woman as president. But most Americans didn’t know Barack Obama six months ago. Most still don’t. Which makes it enormously easy for fringe interests, like Swift Boat groups, to paint him as they like. John McCain may detest that sort of dirty politics, but he can’t stop them, no matter how hard he tries. If Democrats were afraid Hillary Clinton’s campaign was sometimes tough on Barack Obama, they really haven’t seen nothing yet…

This will be a tough summer and fall to be a Democrat, I fear. The honeymoon will soon be over, and the right-wing gloves will soon be coming off. If Barack Obama wants my vote, he’s going to have to pick a vice presidential candidate who can fill in the enormous gaps in his experience, he’s going to have to wholeheartedly embrace universal healthcare, and he’s going to have to start connecting with key Democratic constituencies.

He has almost exactly five months. I don’t envy his task. And if he fails, McCain-Palin may be more persuasive than ever come November 4, 2008.

(For what it’s worth, I never, in my most terrifying nightmares, thought I’d be even remotely close to the same page as Rush Limbaugh.)